Trading sentiment in the equity market this week will be guided by global trends, foreign fund movement, macroeconomic data announcements and RBI's interest rate decision, analysts said. The monthly auto sales data announcement would also be tracked by investors this week.
The net inflows into active equity mutual fund (MF) schemes registered more than a twofold month-on-month rise in August, crossing Rs 20,000 crore, the highest in five months. This rise in net inflows was boosted by an 18 per cent growth in gross investments, driven by a record Rs 15,800 crore inflow through the systematic investment plan (SIP) route and Rs 5,000 crore collected by seven new fund offers (NFOs) in the active equity space, reveals data released by the Association of Mutual Funds in India (Amfi). Moreover, redemptions moderated in August, declining by 19 per cent to Rs 24,580 crore, after staying elevated in the previous three months owing to profit booking.
Indian equity markets had a good run in the first half of calendar year 2023 (CY23), with the S&P BSE Sensex and the National Stock Exchange Nifty50 hitting fresh 52-week highs. While the Sensex scaled up to a peak 64,718, the Nifty50 hit Mt 19,189. As the markets now prepare to enter the second half (H2) of CY23, all eyes are on global central banks, especially the US Federal Reserve, as to when they will pause and pivot as regards their interest-rate cycle.
The value of foreign portfolio investment (FPI) in Indian equities was at $542 billion in the March quarter of 2023, a decline of 11 per cent from the preceding year, largely due to the exodus of foreign money from the domestic market, according to a Morningstar report. In comparison, the value of FPI in Indian equities was $612 billion in the January-March quarter of 2022. On a quarter-on-quarter basis, the value of FPI in Indian equities fell by 7 per cent from $584 billion recorded in the three months ended December 2022.
Zomato emerged as the biggest gainer, followed by Reliance, Nestle, Asian Paints and Power Grid.
The government on Saturday announced a host of measures such as setting up of a new Fund of Funds Scheme (FFS) with Rs 10,000 crore corpus; and extension of period of incorporation by five years with a view to promote growth of budding entrepreneurs.
On average, stocks that debuted last year are down 37 per cent from their peak levels.
Among the 30 Sensex companies, Larsen & Toubro, Power Grid, NTPC, State Bank of India, Reliance Industries and HDFC Bank were the biggest laggards. Sun Pharma and Nestle were the only gainers.
Seasoned bureaucrat and a stickler for rules Finance Secretary Tuhin Kanta Pandey will be at the helm of capital market regulator, Securities and Exchange Board of India (SEBI), for three years. The 1987-batch Odisha-cadre Indian Administrative Service (IAS) officer, Pandey, would replace Madhabi Puri Buch, whose three-year term ends on Friday.
Pharma major Dr Reddy's Laboratories delivered a muted operational performance in the fourth quarter of financial year 2024-25 (Q4FY25), even as revenue growth remained healthy. Lower gross margin performance and muted domestic growth are key concerns. Most brokerages have a "Sell" or "Reduce" rating as there are uncertainties related to the development of a new product portfolio and the launch timelines.
Macroeconomic data announcements, trading activity of foreign investors and global trends will guide equity market movement this week, which would also mark the beginning of the new calendar year and month, analysts said.
After a stellar 2023, the mutual fund industry sustained its growth momentum in 2024 with an impressive Rs 17 lakh crore surge in assets, driven by buoyant equity markets, robust economic growth, and increasing investor participation. Experts are predicting the positive trend will extend into 2025.
In a bull-case scenario it sees the Sensex at 61,000 levels, while it's bear case scenario pegs the Sensex at 41,000 levels by December 2021.
Ask rediffGURU and PF expert Milind Vadjikar your insurance, stocks, mutual fund and personal finance-related questions.
From the 30-share blue-chip pack, Adani Ports, UltraTech Cement, Larsen & Toubro, Sun Pharma, HDFC Bank, ICICI Bank, NTPC and State Bank of India were the major laggards. Tata Consultancy Services, Reliance Industries, ITC, Asian Paints, HCL Tech and Maruti were among the gainers.
From the Sensex pack, Reliance Industries, Bajaj Finserv, HDFC Bank, Adani Ports, Maruti Suzuki India, Axis Bank, Hindustan Unilever, Sun Pharmaceuticals and Asian Paints were among the laggards. Reliance Industries fell the most by 2.38 per cent to close at Rs 1,171.10 apiece.
Mutual fund houses have been on an equity buying spree in the past three months as they have invested a net amount of Rs 55,000 crore in them between January and March 2023. The number is more than double the amount deployed in the preceding three months (October to December), signalling improved valuations and favourable economic indicators. The valuations, which had peaked in October 2021, returned to its long-term average in March 2023.
Foreign investors turned net sellers in October, offloading shares worth Rs 27,142 crore in just the first three days of October due to intensifying conflict between Israel and Iran, a sharp rise in crude oil prices, and improved performance of Chinese markets. The outflow came after FPI investment reached a nine-month high of Rs 57,724 crore in September. Since June, Foreign Portfolio Investors (FPIs) have consistently bought equities after withdrawing Rs 34,252 crore in April-May.
Equity investors will track the trading activity of foreign investors, global trends and ongoing earnings results for further cues, and benchmark indices may continue to witness consolidation in a holiday-shortened week amid the monthly derivatives expiry, analysts said. Markets fell sharply last week amid massive foreign capital outflows and dismal Q2 earnings so far. Weakness in the markets might continue in the near term amid cautiousness among investors ahead of the US presidential election early next month, an expert said.
India's flexible (flex) office segment, having breached pre-pandemic levels, is thriving as corporates, startups, multinational corporations, and global capability centres (GCCs) expand in India, seeking low-capital yet Grade A plug-and-play facilities. In the first quarter (Q1) of 2025, the flex office segment continued to grow, with flex space leasing rising by 22 per cent to 2.2 million square feet (msf), according to Colliers.
From the 30-share blue-chip pack, Adani Ports dropped over 4 per cent. UltraTech Cement, Sun Pharma, IndusInd Bank, NTPC and Tata Steel were also the among the laggards. Nestle, ICICI Bank, Infosys, Tata Consultancy Services and HCL Tech were among the gainers.
Finance, ICICI Bank, Mahindra &h Mahindra, Kotak Mahindra Bank and Titan were among the gainers. Bharti Airtel, Adani Ports, Tech Mahindra, Reliance Industries, Axis Bank, Larsen & Toubro were the laggards.
Net investments in active equity mutual fund (MF) schemes rose to Rs 7,300 crore in December after declining to a 21-month low of Rs 2,260 crore in November, shows the latest data from the Association of Mutual Funds in India (Amfi). The rebound in net inflows was driven by a surge in investments and moderation in redemptions. While the inflows into these schemes rose 5 per cent month-on-month (MoM) in December, the redemptions were 14 per cent lower compared to November.
After withdrawing record funds in 2021-22, foreign portfolio investors (FPIs) continued their sell-off in the last fiscal too and pulled out Rs 37,631 crore from Indian equities amid aggressive rate hikes by central banks globally. The outflow trend is likely to reverse in the current financial year since India has the best growth potential in the financial year 2023-24 (FY24), VK Vijayakumar, chief investment strategist at Geojit Financial Services, said. Market analysts believe that FPI flows in the current financial year would be decided by a host of factors, such as the US Federal Reserve's policy stance, oil prices movement and development in the geopolitical situation.
Investors will take cues from the December quarter corporate earnings, with blue-chips like Infosys, Reliance Industries scheduled to report their results this week, in addition, inflation data and trading activity of foreign investors will also be crucial in dictating market trends, analysts said.
Many investors want to exit equities now and re-enter when they begin to rise. Such timing is difficult to pull off.
Domestic mutual funds (MFs) have kept their faith in the Indian stock market despite multiple headwinds all through 2022-23 (FY23), with their net flows into equities crossing the Rs 1.5-trillion mark for the second consecutive financial year. MFs pumped a net Rs 1.53 trillion into equities till March 1, 2023, the Securities and Exchange Board of India (Sebi) data shows, as compared to Rs 1.72 trillion in FY22. Since FY15, MFs have been net buyers of equities, except in FY21, when they sold a net Rs 1.21 trillion.
While the four largest listed paint companies have seen marginal negative returns, the S&P BSE Fast Moving Consumer Goods (FMCG) and the National Stock Exchange Nifty FMCG indices have delivered a solid 16 per cent return during the same period. Initially, volume growth and reduced costs bolstered the sector's sentiment, but brokerages have grown cautious due to increased competitive pressures.
Foreign investors pumped in Rs 11,119 crore in the Indian equities in December, making it the second consecutive monthly inflow, despite increasing concerns over the re-emergence of Covid-19 cases in some parts of the world. However, foreign portfolio investors (FPIs) have turned cautious in recent days. The inflow in December was much lower compared to Rs 36,239 crore invested by FPIs in the month of November, data with the depositories showed.
In January, SIP account closures surpassed new registrations for the first time.
New fund offers collection in the current calendar year was the highest in a decade, with 13 of the 70 equity schemes cornering 75 per cent of the amount raised.
From the 30-share Sensex pack, Tata Consultancy Services, Infosys, NTPC, HCL Technologies, Axis Bank, Tech Mahindra, Bajaj Finserv, Sun Pharma, IndusInd Bank and Reliance Industries were the major laggards. Tata Steel, Hindustan Unilever, Mahindra & Mahindra, Nestle and State Bank of India were among the gainers.
According to data from BSE, the 4,357 companies available for trade had a combined mcap of around Rs 416 trillion on Tuesday against India's GDP at current prices of Rs 296.6 trillion in FY24.
Among Sensex shares, Zomato, NTPC, Adani Ports, ICICI Bank, State Bank of India, Reliance Industries, Mahindra & Mahindra, Bajaj Finance, Tech Mahindra and Axis Bank were the major laggards. UltraTech Cement and HCL Technologies were the only gainers.
Domestic equity markets will be driven mainly by quarterly earnings, global trends, and the movement in crude oil prices in this holiday-shortened week, analysts said. Investors would also keep an eye on the Middle East amid the ongoing Hamas-Israel conflict and the trading activity of foreign investors. Markets will remain closed on Tuesday for Dussehra.
Bajaj Finance, Bajaj Finserv, NTPC, State Bank of India, Power Grid, HDFC Bank, Tech Mahindra and Asian Paints were the other gainers. However, Zomato, Adani Ports, Tata Consultancy Services, Mahindra & Mahindra, Maruti and Tata Motors were among the laggards.
Titan, Nestle, Hindustan Unilever, State Bank of India, Larsen & Toubro, ITC, Zomato and Bajaj Finserv were also among the laggards. Adani Ports, IndusInd Bank, Tata Motors and HDFC Bank were among the major gainers.
Stock markets are likely to remain range-bound in this holiday-shortened week amid a lack of any major domestic triggers, analysts said. Stock indices may also face volatility during the week amid the monthly derivatives expiry on Thursday. Equity markets would remain closed on Monday for Christmas.
A sharp fall in the equity market made investors poorer by Rs 5.29 lakh crore on Tuesday when the BSE benchmark Sensex tumbled over 800 points. A host of negative triggers -- muted quarterly earnings, continuous foreign fund outflows and weak trends in Asian and European markets -- dragged the benchmark indices lower. The BSE benchmark gauge tumbled 820.97 points or 1.03 per cent to settle at 78,675.18.
Data from Amfi shows that NAV of every one in two BAFs declined 1.5% or less on Monday compared to a 3.13% decline in Nifty 500.
