The majority of active largecap funds are set to outperform for the second year in a row in 2024, thanks to the strong performance of their midcap and smallcap allocations.
Stock markets are likely to remain range-bound in this holiday-shortened week amid a lack of any major domestic triggers, analysts said. Stock indices may also face volatility during the week amid the monthly derivatives expiry on Thursday. Equity markets would remain closed on Monday for Christmas.
Many investors want to exit equities now and re-enter when they begin to rise. Such timing is difficult to pull off.
Domestic mutual funds (MFs) have kept their faith in the Indian stock market despite multiple headwinds all through 2022-23 (FY23), with their net flows into equities crossing the Rs 1.5-trillion mark for the second consecutive financial year. MFs pumped a net Rs 1.53 trillion into equities till March 1, 2023, the Securities and Exchange Board of India (Sebi) data shows, as compared to Rs 1.72 trillion in FY22. Since FY15, MFs have been net buyers of equities, except in FY21, when they sold a net Rs 1.21 trillion.
Rupee depreciation, if it continues, will likely pull the markets down further. Since September 2024, the rupee has declined by 3.1 per cent, the Nifty has dropped by 8.5 per cent during the same period, and the Sensex has fallen by 7.3 per cent. If the decline continues, markets will need to brace for more pain as it could push foreign portfolio investors (FPIs) to exit their positions faster than anticipated.
Hyundai Motor India (HMIL) raised Rs 8,315 crore from anchor investors on Monday, setting the stage for the country's biggest-ever maiden share sale. The Indian arm of the South Korean carmaker Hyundai Motor Company (HMC) allotted 42.4 million shares to 225 funds at Rs 1,960 apiece, the higher end of its price band. Among the investors receiving allotments were the Singapore government's sovereign wealth fund (GIC), New World Fund, and Fidelity.
Domestic equity markets will be driven mainly by quarterly earnings, global trends, and the movement in crude oil prices in this holiday-shortened week, analysts said. Investors would also keep an eye on the Middle East amid the ongoing Hamas-Israel conflict and the trading activity of foreign investors. Markets will remain closed on Tuesday for Dussehra.
The primary market is expected to remain vibrant, with at least 10 companies, including supermart major Vishal Mega Mart and Blackstone-owned diamond grading firm International Gemmological Institute (India) Ltd expected to raise a combined Rs 20,000 crore in the next month, merchant bankers said. Education-focused NBFC Avanse Financial Services, TPG Capital-backed Sai Life Sciences, hospital chain operator Paras Healthcare, and investment bank DAM Capital Advisors are also among the companies planning to launch their IPOs in December, they added. The companies aim to raise a total of Rs 20,000 crore through their public offerings.
Market chatter suggests that the BJP could win fewer than 300.
Small and midcaps are leading the charge in the latest market rebound. Since November 21, when the benchmark S&P BSE Sensex and the National Stock Exchange Nifty hit their recent lows and slipped into correction territory, the Nifty Smallcap 100 index has risen by 8 per cent, while the Nifty Midcap 100 has gained 5.7 per cent. Meanwhile, the Nifty 50 index has risen by 4.7 per cent during this period.
With a deployment of Rs 2,720 crore in July, MFs' total investment in HDFC Bank in calendar year 2024 (till now) surged to Rs 48,820 crore.
Foreign investors pumped in Rs 11,119 crore in the Indian equities in December, making it the second consecutive monthly inflow, despite increasing concerns over the re-emergence of Covid-19 cases in some parts of the world. However, foreign portfolio investors (FPIs) have turned cautious in recent days. The inflow in December was much lower compared to Rs 36,239 crore invested by FPIs in the month of November, data with the depositories showed.
A special court in Mumbai has directed the Anti-Corruption Bureau (ACB) to register a first information report (FIR) against former Securities and Exchange Board of India (SEBI) chairperson Madhabi Puri Buch and five other officials in connection with alleged stock market fraud and regulatory violations.
Equity benchmark indices Sensex and Nifty settled lower for the sixth straight session on Monday due to heavy selling in bellwether stocks including HDFC Bank and Reliance Industries amid mixed trends in the global markets and outflow of foreign funds. Falling for the sixth consecutive session, the BSE Sensex tumbled 638.45 points or 0.78 per cent to settle at 81,050. During the day, it plummeted 962.39 points or 1.17 per cent to 80,726.06. The NSE Nifty slumped 218.85 points or 0.87 per cent to end at 24,795.75.
Equity benchmark indices Sensex and Nifty settled higher on Thursday, powered by a rally in banking and power stocks amid a largely firm trend in global markets. The stock markets mostly traded range-bound in the absence of any major trigger and persistent foreign capital outflows, traders said. The 30-share BSE Sensex rose 144.31 points, or 0.18 per cent, to settle at 81,611.41.
New investors should gradually build a 5 to 10 per cent allocation to gold.
Benchmark equity indices Sensex and Nifty pared early gains to settle lower on Wednesday due to late selling in index major Reliance Industries, ITC and HDFC Bank even as the RBI took the first step towards a rate cut in its monetary policy review. Erasing its early gains, the 30-share BSE Sensex fell 167.71 points or 0.21 per cent to close at 81,467.1. During the day, it surged 684.4 points or 0.83 per cent to hit an intra-day high of 82,319.21.
The Reserve Bank of India's (RBI's) interest rate decision, West Asia conflict and trading activity of foreign investors are the key factors that will dictate investors' sentiment in the market this week, analysts said. Moreover, quarterly earnings from IT bellwether TCS, domestic macroeconomic data and movement in global oil benchmark Brent crude would also guide trends in the market. Worsening tensions in the Middle East and foreign fund outflows were the major culprits behind the equity markets sharp fall last week.
India's healthcare and pharmaceutical sectors raised Rs 14,811 crore through initial public offerings (IPOs) in 2024, the largest since 2019, driven by strong domestic demand amid expanding global opportunities. According to data, key contributors to the record fundraising included Sai Life Sciences (Rs 3,043 crore), IKS Health (Rs 2,498 crore), and Sagility India (Rs 2,107 crore).
Foreign Portfolio Investors (FPIs) have pumped Rs 47,148 crore in the Indian equities in June, making it the highest inflow in 10 months, enthused by the country's steadily improving macroeconomic fundamentals. However, inflows in July may be subdued as FPIs might adopt cautious stance due to the recent comments from the US Federal Reserve, Mayank Mehraa, Smallcase manager and principal partner at financial consultancy Craving Alpha, said. Besides, VK Vijayakumar, Chief Investment Strategist at Geojit Financial Services, said FPIs are likely to turn a bit cautious going forward as valuations in the country are rich from a short-term perspective.
'Allocate up to 20 per cent of your core equity portfolio to quality funds.'
Quarterly earnings of corporates, trading activity of foreign investors and inflation data are the key factors that are expected to drive the momentum in the equity markets this week, analysts said.
With the earnings season drawing to a close, stock markets will take cues from global trends and foreign investors' trading activity this week, analysts said. The US FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee) minutes will be the major highlight this week, experts said. "This week, there are fewer cues on the macro and micro fronts, as the Q1 earnings season has concluded.
The growth was primarily driven by domestic investments, which accounted for 60 per cent of the total inflows during the first quarter of the financial year.
Investors' wealth eroded by Rs 7.59 lakh crore on Monday as the equity market took a heavy drubbing amid escalating tensions in the Middle East. The 30-share BSE Sensex plunged 825.74 points or 1.26 per cent to settle at 64,571.88 points. During the day, the index plummeted 894.94 points or 1.36 per cent to 64,502.68 points.
New fund offers collection in the current calendar year was the highest in a decade, with 13 of the 70 equity schemes cornering 75 per cent of the amount raised.
Mutual funds (MFs) invested a record Rs 1.73 trillion in equities in the financial year 2022-23 (FY23), providing strong support to the Indian markets at a time when foreign investors were redeeming their holdings. They exceeded the previous high of nearly Rs 1.72 trillion investment in equities in FY22. The data from the Securities and Exchange Board of India (Sebi) shows MFs were net buyers in the equity market in eleven of the twelve months last financial year.
Global factors and FII activity will dictate trends in domestic equity markets this week while assembly poll results of Maharashtra and Jharkhand may impact stocks on Monday, say analysts. Stock markets witnessed a spirited recovery on Friday with benchmark Sensex and Nifty notching the best single-day gains in more than five months and offering relief after weeks of correction.
Whether it's Carrefour, Ford, or other foreign majors, they are ready to adjust their strategies and design their plans in a way that would address the Indian consumption story.
The US Federal Reserve's interest rate decision is the biggest event that would drive sentiments in the domestic stock market this week, besides a host of macroeconomic data from the global front and trading activity of foreign investors, analysts said. The Indian equity market had an exceptional last week, with both the Nifty and Sensex hitting their all-time high levels on Thursday.
Investors' wealth on Monday surged Rs 4.21 lakh crore as markets bounced back after five days of fall. The BSE Sensex jumped 602.75 points or 0.76 per cent to settle at 80,005.04. During the day, it surged 1,137.52 points or 1.43 per cent to 80,539.81.
From the 30-share blue-chip pack, Adani Ports jumped over 5 per cent. NTPC, Tata Steel, Bajaj Finserv, Zomato, Bajaj Finance, Tata Motors, State Bank of India, IndusInd Bank and Maruti were among the other big gainers. From the 30-share pack, Hindustan Unilever, Titan, Tata Consultancy Services, Infosys and UltraTech Cement were the other laggards.
Among the Sensex firms, Titan, Asian Paints, ITC, Hindustan Unilever, Nestle India, Bajaj Finserv and Bharti Airtel were among the gainers. In contrast, UltraTech Cement, Tech Mahindra, Tata Steel, Power Grid, HDFC Bank, HCL Technology, State Bank of India and ICICI Bank were the laggards.
Shares of state-owned bank stocks were under pressure on Monday due to muted deposit and credit growth numbers reported by these lenders in the October-December quarter (Q3) of 2024-25 (FY25). The Nifty PSU Bank index was down 4 per cent, with Union Bank of India emerging as the biggest loser as its shares fell 7.5 per cent to close at Rs 114.7, followed by a 5.7 per cent drop in shares of Bank of Baroda (BoB) to Rs 228 and a 4.7 per cent slide in shares of Bank of India to Rs 99.8 on the National Stock Exchange.
Ask rediffGURU and PF expert Milind Vadjikar your insurance, stocks, mutual fund and personal finance-related questions.
Stock Market News today, PSU banks: The year 2024 was a roller-coaster ride for Indian stock markets, marked by volatility driven by the Lok Sabha elections, Union Budget 2024, a slowdown in corporate earnings, and sticky inflation. Geopolitical tensions - particularly between Israel and Iran in West Asia - along with various stimulus announcements by China and yen carry trade rocked the equity markets throughout the year.
Quant funds are a unique offering in the MF space as the investment decisions are driven by a blend of active and passive strategies.
As regards India, FIIs have pumped in over Rs 34,400 crore in the Indian stocks in calendar year 2021.
The rupee tumbled 3 per cent against the US dollar in 2024 as concerns over slower economic growth and a stronger greenback in global markets weighed, but it was among the least volatile currencies in the world and the headwinds may be less intense in the coming year.
The sharp correction in the Indian markets from their peak levels has made valuations attractive, say analysts, who advise buying selectively, but only from a long-term perspective. Fifty-six of the Nifty 100 stocks, according to Mahesh Nandurkar, managing director at Jefferies, now trade below the 10-year historical averages, including stocks in financial, select auto, and pharma sectors. "Valuation (one-year forward consensus price-to-earnings, PE) has declined 25 per cent from October 2021 peak, almost matching the 33 per cent price-earnings contraction during the 2011 tightening cycle when repo rates went up by 375 basis points (bps) versus 250 bps this cycle.
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